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The Truth About Picking Winners and Making Money Betting on Horses

  ...A message from Bill Peterson...

    Many people ask me, "If your horse racing systems are so good, why do you sell them? Why don't you just use your own systems to get rich?"

    The truth of the matter is that making a profit betting on horse races is very difficult.


Then why should you buy my horse racing systems?

     They teach some very good horse racing angles and techniques that you usually won't find anywhere else. You can add them to your bag of tricks.

My systems aren't guaranteed to make you rich, in fact, you may not make a profit from them alone, unless you adapt them a little.

How good are they?

    I've been writing and selling horse racing systems for years. I know they're good and I believe in my methods and techniques. In fact, I believe in them so much I guarantee them. If you don't think the system you buy is worth what you paid for it, if you don't think you learned something from it, you can email me within 30 days and ask for a full refund and you'll get it, no questions asked, no hassles.

That's the best guarantee in the business.

    Look at it this way, if I make wild unsubstantiated promises about how you're going to get rich off my systems and how you won't have to do any work, you and I both know that isn't true. Yet, many people who sell horse racing systems do make those wild claims. Do you think someone who has the gall to lie to you like that is going to offer a guarantee like mine?

To find out how you can use these systems click here...




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Articles...
 
 

Handicapping Maiden Horse Races

by Bill Peterson

   Some of the best bets that you'll find at the races today depend on just one factor.

   While many handicapping factors may contribute to the final evaluation of any horse race, it's often difficult to know just how important each factor is compared to the others. Understanding how much weight to give each statistic and piece of data is one of the many mysteries of horse racing handicapping that bettors try to solve every day.

   There is, however, one kind of race where one factor is usually considered the most important of all, making them the easiest races to handicap. I'm talking about maiden races and raw speed. Of course, you also have to consider class drops and other trainer angles, but under the right conditions, a maiden horse race can be the easiest and most profitable to handicap. Knowing which maiden races to play is the key and that's where the elimination process comes in handy.

   Applying some good speed handicapping using the average speed of each runner with the right elimination process can reveal some of the best bets at the races. Average speed is easy enough to calculate, but what elimination process should you use?

   Below you will find several articles I've written about handicapping maidens, including one on eliminating the maiden races you shouldn't play and playing the right races (to see many more articles I've written go to Bill Peterson on Ezine Articles...)

How to Handicap Maiden Horse Races Using Elimination Factors

By Bill Peterson

   Many people won't play maiden horse races because they feel that the horses are too unpredictable or that there's too little information available. That's the case in some contests for horses who have never won a race, but not for all of them. There are some races for young horses that are yet to find the winners circle that are good prospects for horse players.

   The key is in eliminating contests with too many unknowns and to focus on races where the youngsters have shown their true colors. Therefore, one of the first rules for finding playable maiden events is to skip any event with more than two first time starters. If a horse hasn't had a race, it's hard to tell how it will fare, but using sire statistics and trainer statistics as well as the figures from any workouts that are posted, it is possible to evaluate the first timers enough to make some assumptions.

   Experience has shown that it's possible to play a race as long as there are only two first timers or less and still make a profit. That being said, there is one caveat. Avoid races with a first time starter that is taking heavy betting action. If a "firster" is the favorite or second favorite in the betting, it's probably a good idea to skip the race.

   Sticking with dirt races and fields that have competed on the dirt is also a must. In maiden contests run on turf or synthetic tracks, you'll often find horses who have raced on another surface and who are now switching surfaces. It's very hard to evaluate a maiden's performance on a different surface and to make accurate comparisons to today's surface. So if you have a turf race and several of the runners haven't run on turf before, I suggest passing the race unless you have good sire information and think you can accurately evaluate how the horses who are trying the grass for the first time will take to the surface.

   Finally, we have another situation that may be as dangerous and unpredictable as the first time starter. I'm talking about horses who've had just one race in their lives. Many trainers won't push a youngster in its first race and therefore, a poor performance in a first race may hide a runner who will perform brilliantly next time out. I avoid races with more than two horses who are on their second race.

   Therefore, avoid maiden races on surfaces other than dirt or with horses who are switching surfaces. Avoid races with more than two first time starters or more than two horses who are have raced only once. Also pass any race with a first time starter who is getting lots of betting action. You'll still find some maiden races to handicap and play and you'll be amazed at how formful the maidens are in those races.

   If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to True Handicapping and get the truth. To see all my horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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A Maiden Horse Racing System for Picking Winners

By Bill Peterson

   Horse racing handicapping, like anything else you do, is best done with a systematic approach. Taking a little time to think through the method you'll use before you actually handicap a maiden horse race will help you to pick more winners and possibly make a profit from your wagers. You must be prepared, however, and stick to a method, in other words, to have a plan because those who fail to plan, plan to fail.

   Let's start by clearly stating the goal of any handicapping method. You want to rate or estimate each horse's probability of winning based on class, speed, connections, breeding, form. It's the same for a race for non-winners or for stakes horses. The basics don't change, only the numbers and how you apply them.

   Using one factor to start your evaluation of the runners in a race for horses who've never won a race is a good place to start. Let's start with class. In maiden horse races, runners usually don't move up in class and fare very well unless they change barns. So if you don't see a new trainer, but you do see that a horse is moving up in class, you must ask yourself if it has a realistic chance of winning.

   The only indication of a possibility is if there was an equipment change that has made a big difference or a new trainer. If you don't see one of those changes, the horse is probably not going to be competitive at a higher class. If you see the addition of blinkers, for instance, and the runner had a recent workout that was very fast, it may be that the conditioner put blinkers on the horse and it made a big improvement. If that's the case it has a chance to move up and win, but otherwise, rate it as an extreme longshot.

   There are some trainers who do a great job with young horses. You should be aware of them and always give their horses extra credit. There are other trainers who struggle to get a win out of a horse when it begins its career and you should rate their horses as longshots. If a horse is a first time starter, there are two ways to rate it. Start with the trainer and find out his or her average with first time starters. Secondly, look at the breeding of the horse and see if it is bred to win first or second time out. If not, unless it is getting heavy action on the tote board, pass it by.

   Now let's talk about form. If a horse was recently within two lengths of the winner in a race and is not adding a significant amount of weight or switching to a low percentage jockey, it should be considered the most likely contender and get the highest rating. Assign odds to each horse based on those factors and then watch the tote board for the best odds on the most likely contenders. In some races it may be a horse that was close last time out while in others you may find more value in a horse dropping in class or from a trainer who wins with first time starters.

   Just betting one or the other angle all the time usually doesn't pay off. You have to watch the odds and see if there is value in any of the angles that the race presents based on how strong you rate each horse.

   If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/sharpshooter2.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Horse Racing Handicapping Tip Number 4 - Learn to Handicap Maiden Claiming Races

By Bill Peterson

   Learning how to handicap maiden claiming races is one way to make money betting on horses. One nice thing about maiden horses is that they usually haven't had enough time to get hidden injuries or health problems that plague older runners. With maidens, what you see is what you get, with a few exceptions, of course.

   When comparing the win percentages of favorites in maiden races to the win percentage of favorites in other races, you may find, to your surprise, that favorites win a high percentage of maiden races. That's because, as I said before, what you see is what you get. The regulars at the track and the backstretch gang in particular, can spot a maiden runner that's about to win.

   As a handicapper trying to make money betting on races, you can make money on maidens by doing the same thing that the trainers and track regulars do. Keep notes on the maidens and learn follow the horse's progress. This's how it's done.

   When you see a maiden claiming race is on the card, get yourself down to the paddock and look the horses over. Sight handicapping and maiden races are a great fit. If you see a maiden is not filled out or looking too good, you can make a note of that. The same horse may appear much better in a future race and knowing that it has improved physically may help you to have a good priced winner.

   Another area of interest is equipment. As trainers try to figure a young horse out and help it to perform at its best, they may try different equipment changes like blinkers, tongue ties, nasal strips, shadow rolls, etc. Once you have become astute as a maiden watcher, you may even make a note that a horse needs a certain piece of equipment, based on its performance in a race you've watched. If you then see that the trainer has made that addition in the next race, you may also note that the horse should improve.

   This method requires work, but it's one way to to pick winners and make money betting on horses. This is not how the average horse player picks his or her bets and that's why over 90% of the people who play the races lose. Many who bet on horse races are just trying to get lucky and win money with little effort. Other people just don't have a clue as to how to make money betting on horses or what to look for to find a good bet. If you're willing to take this tip and do the work, you can learn to handicap maiden races and maybe, just maybe, finally make money betting on race horses.

Without the basics the rest isn't going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill's handicapping store.

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Jockey Switches Can Signal a Win or Loss Depending On These Handicapping Factors

By Bill Peterson

   One of the most confusing factors horse racing handicappers have to deal with is when a jockey gets off one horse to ride another. What does it mean? First of all, how good is the rider who got off the mount and how good is the new one? That will tell you a lot.

   Secondly, what experience has the new rider had with the horse? While we're on the subject of experience, what is the jockey trainer combo's winning percentage? Yes it's tricky and that's why so many would-be horse players struggle with it.

   The subject of horse racing handicapping is a complicated and risky business. There are no black and white, yes or no answers to these questions. The obvious answer, however, is often the right one. For instance, if the jockey who got off the horse has a far better win average than the new reinsman, then it's a pretty good bet that he or she has chosen a better horse and has given up on the other mount.

   Winning riders get those high percentages and win riding titles at race tracks because they, or their agent, can spot a good mount and can also pick the better of the two when given a choice. Therefore, using the other handicapping factors of speed, class, pace, and recent form, which of the two mounts looks better, more likely to win?

   If your handicapping picks the same horse the top jockey chose, then you are probably correct. Experience has taught me that when it comes to a choice between two horses, most jockeys do choose the right one. On the other hand, and here is where this all gets so tricky, you have to shop for value in your bets if you're going to make a profit betting on horses.

   The rest of the horse players will also notice the switch and will probably lay off the horse that was abandoned by the better jockey. That means the odds will be higher, perhaps producing an overlay, on the horse that was left behind. Using your best handicapping skills, ask yourself what the horse should go off at and then increase it by at least 25%. Why increase your line on the horse? Because there may very well be something that the jockey knows about that horse that you don't know.

   In almost all of these situations, even using your best handicapping and taking into consideration the odds offered, you will find the horse isn't a good bet and should be left alone.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to True Handicapping and get the truth about betting on horses and winning.

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