#1 Easy Point System For Horse Racing Wagering
By Bill Peterson
This is an easy to follow method that I'm going to explain because I want to show you how critical it is to use a systematic method, a system, to handicap and wager on horse races. Now admittedly, this is a pretty simple method and a large number of punters spend hours reading a racing form or playing with computer programs to figure out the contenders in a race. Some people call handicapping an intellectual sport and do it for fun or the challenge while others do it for profit. Because it costs money to play the races, if you aren't making money, it can be an expensive hobby. With that thought in mind, let's look at how we can at least support the hobby with winnings from the races.
The goal of making a profit should always be somewhere in mind, if you want to support your handicapping. Keep it in the back of your mind while you read the race and determine the contenders. You may think that all the people who are cashing tickets after a race are winners, but such is not the case. If you are a pro at gambling and handicapping, you know what I mean. Cashing a winning ticket does not make you a winner in the long run.
How can that be? Well the people who cash tickets after a race may have spent too much for that ticket and didn't actually make a profit on the race. Others may have profited from that race but didn't manage their money well and wound up losing for the day, week, or month. Here is what I am getting at, the professional gamblers and horse players are not only good at picking winners, but they are also good at picking bets that are profitable over the long run. In order to be successful, you must be good at picking horses and bets.
Let's do a little exercise that will help you to start thinking along the lines of odds in comparison to a horse's real chances of winning, the basis for picking good bets. We'll start with 100% of the money invested in a horse race by all the bettors and then subtract 20% which is approximately the track's take out, or vig. We are left with 80% of the pool, the amount that will be distributed to the winners. Then we'll consider the number of horses in the field. Divide the 80% by the number of horses in the field. If there are 8 horses in the field, then each horse accounts for about 10% of the pool because 80 divided by 8 equals 10. Let's go one step farther and call that 10% a unit. Next we will consider the factors of a horse race.
1. Consistency of the runners is determined by dividing the number of races a horse ran by the number of times it won. So a runner that won 2 out of 10 races has a consistency rating of 2 out of 10 or 1/5 or 20%. The horse with the highest consistency rating gets the 10% for that factor. The horse who wins each factor gets 10% for that factor.
2. Class is arrived at by dividing the amount of money the horse has made in its lifetime by the number of races it has run. So if a horse made $10,000 and ran 10 times it would have averaged $1,000 per race. If the horse has raced at least five times in the current year you should divide this years winnings by the number of races it ran this year. If it raced less than five times, use lifetime races and earnings.
3. Jockey's are easy to compute. Just find the jockey's winning percentage.
4. Trainers are also easy to figure, once again, use the winning percentage.
5. Speed in last race. Find the horse with the fastest speed rating in its last race.
6. Overall Speed is computed by finding the fastest speed rating in the last 60 days. If they don't list speed ratings, use raw times at the distance, for instance, 6 furlongs at 1:10 or whatever.
7. Won Last Race (if two or more horses won their last races, give the 10% to the one who won in the classiest race.)
8. Just won at the same distance on the same track (if two horses have done it, give the 10% to the one who did it at the highest level, if it is still a tie, give each one 5%)
Now let's put it all together and see if we can't make heads or tails of the runners to figure out what fair odds are for each racer...
1. Each factor listed above is worth 10%. The horse with the highest rating for each factor gets 10%. It is actually possible for a horse to be the leader in all categories and to get the whole 80%, but that doesn't usually happen.
2. The next step is to determine what amount of money should be allotted to comprise realistic payoffs, good bets.
The odds you see on the toteboard are figured by turning the percentage of the pool bet on the horse into a fraction. An example would be a runner with half of the pool bet on it, 50%, would be at 1/2 odds because dividing 50 into 100 gives us the fraction, 1/2. This means that the horse should win half the time if it is really as good as the public thinks it is. Reading the table below, we see that a four dollar payoff would be a fair payoff for the horse for every $2 bet on it.
Fair Odds Percentage
2/5 80%
3/5 70%
4/5 60%
1/1 50%
8/5 40%
2/1 30%
4/1 20%
9/1 10%
So if you look at the factors in the race and estimate that a horse who had the best time in its last race and also has the best jockey (gets 10% for each factor so it is a 20% horse) is going off at more than 4/1 odds, then it is a profitable bet because it will win about 1 out of 5 times but pays more than $10, the cost of the base bets.
This system is not meant to be used for serious wagering. It is simply an exercise to get you thinking in terms of probability and payoff, the true key to making a profit at horse racing handicapping.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I've been around horse racing for 50 years. Without the basics the rest isn't going to do you any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to True Handicapping and get the truth.
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